An Analytical Preview of the Mets 2025 bullpen
With Opening Day approaching, I wanted to take a look at how the Mets bullpen is shaping up and what we should expect from it in 2025. By most measures, they were a middle-of-the-pack group last year, ranking 17th in ERA, 18th in Win Probability Added (WPA), and 12th in FIP. They did lead the league in strikeout rate at 27.7%, but also had the third-highest walk rate at 10.7%.
It was a rollercoaster season from Edwin Díaz, and they saw breakouts from Reed Garrett and Dedniel Núñez. Heading into this year, the bullpen looks almost identical to 2024, aside from the addition of A.J. Minter, every pitcher on this card was already in the system last season.
I made this “ideal usage” card using R, summarizing key stats like Stuff+ vs. both lefties and righties, high-leverage numbers (defined as pitches thrown with the go-ahead run at the plate/on base or the tying run on base/on deck), and pitch range—like peak velocity and which pitch number in an outing generated the most whiffs on average. I manually input values like Stuff+ and then used logic rules to make decisions, like if K% vs. R > K% vs. L, it tagged them as better vs. righties, and if K% in high-leverage spots was strong, they were marked as HL-ready.
Below, I’ll break down each of the pitchers I expect to spend time in the big league bullpen this year, even if they don’t crack the Opening Day roster. For each reliever, I’ll give a pro and con, project how they’ll be used in game, and highlight a few things to watch for.
Edwin Díaz
Pros: Coming off a strong postseason, incredible stuff, proven high-leverage performer
Cons: Velo and stuff dipped this spring, still just one year removed from knee surgery
Díaz raised some concern after a noticeable velocity dip this spring. I don’t think it’s a huge deal, he was still hitting 97, and with a few small mechanical tweaks, he could return to his 2024 postseason form. Maybe not quite the 2022 version sitting 99 and touching 103, but still an elite closer.
A.J. Minter
Pros: Good stuff, high-leverage experience, strong vs. LHH
Cons: Concerning underlying numbers, struggled in high leverage, coming off injury
The Mets’ lone external bullpen addition, Minter is hoping to bounce back to his 2023 form and become a dominant lefty setup man. His 2.62 ERA over 39 innings looks great, but his 4.45 FIP, dip in K%, and hard contact allowed in high leverage spots paint a more concerning picture. He’s coming off hip surgery, which could help restore some of the velocity he lost. I’d be cautious using him in big spots early, but his cutter and overall arsenal have been elite in the past, he could work his way into a key role.
José Buttó
Pros: Starter’s pitch mix, good vs. RHH, can go multiple innings
Cons: Command issues, middling stuff, not great in high leverage
Buttó began 2024 in the rotation but ended up being a versatile arm in the bullpen, eating middle innings, setting up, and even picking up three saves. His value lies in his ability to go multiple innings and give different looks thanks to his starter’s mix. The stuff is above average, and he can miss bats, but command will need to improve before he’s trusted in tight spots. After his first full spring as a reliever, he enters the year as a valuable Swiss Army knife for the 'pen.
Reed Garrett
Pros: Incredible splitter, velocity spike, platoon-neutral arsenal, high-leverage capable
Cons: Overused last season, command issues
Garrett broke out at age 31, establishing one of the best whiff pitches in baseball, a splitter with a 51.1% whiff rate. He also developed a sweeper and cutter and saw a velocity bump throughout the year, averaging 98.1 mph and touching 99.6. He was leaned on heavily, and he had a tendency to lose the zone in high leverage (just 22% zone rate), but his deep five-pitch mix lets him handle both lefties and righties. He’ll be back in high-leverage spots again this year.
Ryne Stanek
Pros: Elite stuff, high-leverage performer, damage suppression, new sweeper
Cons: Volatile, struggles vs. RHH, command issues
Stanek was a key piece for the Mets down the stretch after coming over from Seattle. His 100 mph fastball with high IVB and nasty splitter give him elite raw stuff. Surprisingly, he was better vs. lefties (36.4% K vs. LHH, 30.6% vs. RHH), mostly due to the splitter. He showed up in big spots with a 43% K rate in high-leverage situations. To help with righties, he added a new sweeper that looked promising in a small sample. He still struggles to throw strikes overall (14% zone rate), though that jumps to 26% in leverage spots.
Danny Young
Pros: Elite sinker-sweeper combo, deadly vs. LHH, limits hard contact
Cons: Can’t face RHH, poor command, loses the zone in leverage spots
The definition of a lefty specialist, Young grades out elite against lefties thanks to his sweeping breaking ball and arm side run on his sinker. The issue is righties don’t chase it, and eventually, neither do lefties when it’s not in the zone. That said, he showed encouraging signs this spring, his sinker was up almost two ticks, he zoned it more consistently, and he debuted a cutter he threw nearly 20% of the time. That could help him stay in the zone and survive against RHH. For now, he’s a low-leverage, lefty-only option, but I could see him rising in the ranks.
Max Kranick
Pros: Dominant spring, outlier pitch shapes, multi-inning potential
Cons: Mediocre Triple-A numbers, injury concerns
Kranick had a dominant spring, flashing a dynamic and well-rounded arsenal. His fastball sits in the high 90s with high IVB, and he mixes in three breakers: a hard gyro slider, a traditional curve, and a “lifty” sweeper that’s become more popular lately. The sweeper stood out in his last outing, producing elite vertical and horizontal movement that almost mimics a left-handed fastball. His metrics here come from Triple-A, but I’d start him in a low-leverage, multi-inning role with a chance to earn high-leverage looks quickly.
Paul Blackburn
Pros: Starter’s pitch mix, multiple innings
Cons: Spinal fluid leak?!, poor stuff, bad command
Blackburn will start the year on the IL, but he was expected to be a low-leverage innings-eater out of the 'pen. He’s better against righties, but there isn’t a ton to like in his profile outside of his durability. When he returns, he could still fill that mop-up role.
Dedniel Núñez
Pros: Elite stuff, high-leverage upside
Cons: Injury risk
Núñez might be the guy I’m most excited to see over a full season. We don’t talk enough about how dominant he was in 2024. His “death ball” slider: 45.4% whiff rate, 50.1% K rate, .117 xBA, .190 xwOBA. He also throws 99 with above-average IVB for his arm slot. He’s got some of the best raw stuff in the bullpen and can dominate both sides. If he stays healthy, he’ll make a major impact.
Huascar Brazobán
Pros: Limits hard contact, throws hard, multi-inning arm, MiLB options
Cons: Spotty command, aging, can’t handle high leverage
Brazobán is another innings-eater with more upside than Blackburn. He sits in the upper 90s, has a solid changeup, and suppresses hard contact. His strikeout rates haven’t matched the velocity, and control remains an issue. Now 35, he still has two MiLB options remaining, expect to see him moving between Syracuse and Queens throughout the year.
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