The Mets Next High-Rising Pitching Prospect
An Analysis of Will Watson
On April 14, 2024, I released a thread breaking down Jonah Tong (link), then a little-known prospect, after a dominant start in A-ball with Port St. Lucie. I called him the Mets' next high-rising pitching prospect. That post was my first real breakout thread, and it set me on the path I’m on today. One year and many awesome opportunities and experinces later, I wanted to commemorate the anniversary by spotlighting this year’s Jonah Tong: the Mets prospect who could seemingly come out of nowhere and dominate the minors in 2025.
In his 2024 college season he had 3.93 ERA, 4.03 FIP in 50.1 IP, doesn’t jump off the page, but he showed good whiff stuff. His four-seam fastball topped out around 97 mph, sat in the mid-90s with 18” of IVB from a 5.3’ release height, and got whiffs at a 21% clip. He mixed in a slider (~40% whiff rate) and a changeup (~41%) with 20” of armside run, although the change didn’t have a ton of depth. The pitch mix, whiff rates, and metrics suggest a profile that likely would’ve gone earlier than the 7th round if not for reliver risk caused by control and delivery concerns, plus a lack of experience against top college competition.
Watson was actually drafted once before, in the 20th round by the Mariners in 2023. A solid comparison for him might the Mariners be Bryan Woo, a 6th-rounder also out of a California school (Cal-Poly San Luis Obispo). Both are slightly undersized righties with flat VAAs and mid-80s sliders that had underwhelming shape despite good whiff rates. Woo’s slider was overhauled by Seattle, from 81.3 mph with 8” of sweep in college to 88.2 mph with just 3.4” of sweep in 2025. As Mikey Donodeo (@mjd_analysis on X) noted in his great breakdown of the Mets’ draft (link), Watson’s slider is likely a candidate for similar reworking.
One way to increase a slider’s velo is by increasing index finger pressure, adding gyro spin and killing sweep. Watson’s slider jumped from 83.7 mph with 9” sweep in 2024 to 85.4 mph with 7” sweep this season. Not quite a Woo-level jump, but it’s helped raise the pitch’s TJStuff+ from 100 to 104, around average to borderline above.
Bryan Woo is more of a supinator who can manipulate breaking shapes more easily, while Watson seems more like a pronator. That makes it harder to change his slider shape like Woo did, but can make a true lifty cutter easier to throw. Watson’s added a true cutter 88 mph with IVB in between his 4-seam and Slider while staying around 0” HB. He is already using this cutter more than the slider. It gives him a hard glove-side option he can land to both righties and lefties, and can pair nicely with his Slider - which can be a strikeout pitch.
Video: @MetsPlayerDev on X
Watson’s changeup has ticked up slightly in velo and depth from his college days and has the potential to be a legitimate whiff pitch, especially given its above average velocity. Like Tong last year, Watson might be able to fly through the low minors on the strength of his fastball alone. The pitch sits around 17” of IVB from a 5-3 release, well above average for his slot , and with his current velo (sitting mid-90s, touching 97). I think it is a 60 grade pitch with the potential to be higher if he adds velocity.
With his slider and changeup, both of which I believe are average to above-average secondaries and his new true cutter, I expect Watson to climb prospect list this summer.
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